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Stamford, CT, (July 26, 2011)—Tradition Energy has released its revised estimate for energy commodity prices for 2011. Due primarily to the unrest in the Middle East and the value of the dollar, Tradition revised its crude forecast from $92.50 per barrel to $95. Natural gas, revised from $4.20 to $4.35, and electricity from $54.50 to $58, were a different matter, with prices now firming after trending lower for most of the year due to abundant supplies, increasing production and falling industrial demand.
The report highlights how persistently high temperatures across the country have boosted demand for electricity to meet air-conditioning loads and new clean air rules issued by the government that caused a rally at the back end of the curve for both natural gas and electricity.
“Many factors have contributed to the revised estimates, including the ‘Arab Spring’, the lingering European debt crisis, and lackluster manufacturing activity,” said Addison Armstrong, Sr. Director, Market Research. “While acknowledging that supply uncertainties will keep prices for petroleum commodities firm in the second half of the year, we remain skeptical about the sustained upside potential. Prices should largely stay in check due to slowing global economic growth and adequate inventories. Natural gas and electricity prices appear to have now joined the bullish action, with sustained heat likely to boost demand and crimp supplies in the third quarter.”
The 19-page report identifies every important market factor with the potential to stimulate price volatility over the remainder of the year. Additionally, it provides both historical and forward analyses for crude oil, natural gas, electricity, gasoline and heating oil, and includes a revised price forecast for each.
A summary of the 2011 Energy Market Forecast Mid-year Update white paper was presented to Tradition clients via the web, on Tuesday, July 26, from Tradition’s head office in Stamford, CT.
For information: Scott Merrell, Sr. Director, Sales & Marketing, Scott.Merrell@TraditionEnergy.com
Tradition Energy is one of the world’s largest energy management and procurement advisors to commercial, industrial and governmental organizations with over 300 energy specialists in 11 offices covering both the wholesale and retail energy markets since 1986. Tradition Energy is part of the Tradition Group, a leading global institutional broker of financial and commodity products. Tradition employs over 2,500 people in 27 countries around the world and is publically listed on the Swiss stock exchange (CFT).