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Tradition Energy 2nd Half 2010 Energy Price Forecasts; Crude Higher, Natural Gas Lower

Stamford, CT, (August 11, 2010)—Tradition Energy has released its revised estimate for energy commodity prices for 2010. Due primarily to the poor prospect of economic growth in the second half of the year, Tradition revised its crude forecast from $71 per barrel to $75 while the natural gas forecast was revised down from $5.25 to $4.85.

The report highlights how the oil price has been tightly correlated with strength in equity markets, which have consistently priced in potentially better economic growth, despite decidedly mixed economic data. The rise in crude and refined products prices, in particular, runs counter to the underlying fundamentals of those markets.

Natural gas, on the other hand, has been the one energy commodity most attuned to supply and demand. Increasing production from shale gas plays throughout the country has been more than sufficient to offset elevated demand from power generators due to hot summer temperatures throughout most of the county, while industrial demand for natural gas continues to lag 2008 levels.

“Many factors have contributed to the revised estimates, including the European debt crisis, lackluster manufacturing activity and consumer confidence in the U.S., and slowing GDP growth in China,” said Addison Armstrong, Sr. Director, Market Research. “As a result, energy prices slipped lower and then stagnated, unable to gain direction as nearly all markets appeared to be over-supplied. Natural gas, despite a brief rally in June, has been in a downtrend all year due to abundant supplies and increasing production.”

Tradition’s revised forecast:

Commodity Original Forecast YTD Avg. Updated Forecast
NYMEX Crude $71.00 $78.15 $75.00
NYMEX Gasoline $1.70 $2.12 $2.05
NYMEX Heating Oil $1.95 $2.07 $2.00
NYMEX Natural Gas $5.25 $4.65 $4.85

The 18-page report identifies every important market factor with the potential to stimulate price volatility over the remainder of the year. Additionally, it provides both historical and forward analyses for crude oil, natural gas, coal, electricity, gasoline and heating oil, and includes a revised price forecast for each.

A summary of the 2010 Energy Market Forecast Mid-year Update white paper was presented via the web to an exclusive client list, on Thursday, August 5, from Tradition’s head office in Stamford, CT.

For information: Scott Merrell,

About Tradition Energy

Tradition Energy is one of the world’s largest energy management and procurement advisors to commercial, industrial and governmental organizations with over 300 energy specialists in 11 offices covering both the wholesale and retail energy markets since 1986. Tradition Energy is part of the Tradition Group, a leading global institutional broker of financial and commodity products. Tradition employs over 2,500 people in 27 countries around the world and is publically listed on the Swiss stock exchange (CFT).